Brisbane’s million-dollar club to double as house prices jump
BRISBANE’S million dollar club could more than double in the next three years if predictions for a massive jump in house prices come to fruition.
As many as 35 “Cinderella” suburbs could have median house prices of more than $1 million by 2022, based on BIS Oxford Economics’ forecast that Brisbane could outstrip other capital cities and surge by 20 per cent over the next three years.
Homeowners in Red Hill, Anstead and Windsor are looking at capital growth of at least $160,000, according to projections using the latest figures from property researcher, CoreLogic.
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Vendors in Rochedale and Ashgrove, where the median house price is $998,000 and $980,000 respectively, could pocket nearly $200,000 without lifting a finger.
There are currently 23 suburbs in Brisbane with a median house price of $1 million or more, according to CoreLogic, but that would increase to 58.
BIS Oxford Economics made the bold prediction in its Residential Property Prospects 2019 to 2022 report, which was released in July.
BIS Oxford Economics associate director and report author Angie Zigomanis said he still expected Brisbane house prices to grow by 20 per cent over the next three years — the strongest growth of any capital city.
“From a fundamental perspective, Brisbane has a lot going for it,” Mr Zigomanis said.
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“Its population is picking up, construction is falling away so any excess supply is going to get soaked up and the economy will start to pick up.”
Mr Zigomanis said the biggest impact would likely be felt closer to 2022 because it “takes a while for the market to gather steam”.
Mr Zigomanis said it was good news for owner occupiers.
“If you’re a family looking for a house to live in for a long time, I think it’s a good time to get in to the market,” he said.
But from an investor perspective, Mr Zigomanis said it would continue to be challenging.
“Even though APRA’s made life easier for borrowers, banks are still putting onerous conditions on investors, so they’ll be out of the market for a while longer,” he said.
Other property experts are predicting even higher price growth for Brisbane over the coming years.
Select Residential Property Research Group research director Jeremy Sheppard said median house prices in the top Brisbane suburbs could grow by a whopping 25 per cent by 2022.
Mr Sheppard said SRP’s research was based on data from realestate.com.au, CoreLogic and the Bureau of Statistics.
Under his predictions, Red Hill and Keperra come out on top for forecast growth, with median house prices potentially set to increase by about $215,000 and $130,000 respectively.
Mr Sheppard also expects Mount Gravatt, Rochedale South, Arana Hills, Morningside, Chermside West and Tingalpa to record strong house price growth by 2022.
Place Estate Agents chief executive Damian Hackett said he expected growth to be seen in suburbs that were already in high demand, but also those suburbs that were on the cusp of those areas.
He said those suburbs known as “Cinderella suburbs” were more affordable, yet still offered a similar lifestyle to the high demand suburbs.
“Based on our research, we expect to see a median house price spike past the million-dollar mark in suburbs like Hendra, Camp Hill, Indooroopilly and Norman Park,” Mr Hackett said.
“These are areas that already have multimillion-dollar homes and the older homes are either being knocked down and rebuilt or beautifully renovated.”
Ray White Queensland CEO Tony Warland expects the southeast corner of the state to continue to attract interstate migration due to its relative affordability and lifestyle.
The boss of the largest network in the state expects suburbs like Bardon and Ashgrove to continue to appreciate in value and crack the million dollar median club soon.
“Both of these premium suburbs have had positive growth for the last five years,” Mr Warland said.
LJ Hooker Queensland sales leader Roger Carr predicts Dutton Park will experience strong house price growth.
“In the Brisbane State High School catchment, Dutton Park’s popularity was underpinned over the last 12 months with CoreLogic recording a 14.1 per cent growth in the median house price to $964,250,” Mr Carr said.
“Interest continues to rise in the area and low interest rates are encouraging buyers to add value to their properties through renovations.”
Brisbane couple Trent Jordan and Belinda Jeffrey are selling 32 Park Road West, Dutton Park, with a view to buying in the same suburb.
Dutton Park has a median house price of $964,250, according to CoreLogic, but that would jump to $1.16 million by 2022 if BIS Oxford Economics’ predictions are correct.
Mr Jordan said he loved living in the suburb because of its convenience to the city, access to transport and lifestyle amenities, and the fact his house was in the Brisbane State High School catchment.
Marketing agent Deb Maguire of Place Estate Agents – Kangaroo Point said Dutton Park was benefitting from the overflow from surrounding suburbs like Highgate Hill.
”People are trying to get houses in Highgate Hill, West End and South Brisbane, but cannot get a foot in there for under $1.5 million as a general rule,” Ms Maguire said.
She said Dutton Park was becoming more popular with young, executive couples looking to upgrade from an apartment to a house close to the city.
“You’re finding quite a lot of homes there are being gentrified and you do capitalise on the fact that you’ve got good sized blocks,” Ms Maguire said.
“Generally, the houses are older style houses. There’s a mix of workers’ cottages and Queenslanders.”
Ms Maguire said the house at 32 Park Road West would grow in value because of its location in the Brisbane State High School catchment.
McGrath Queensland state manager Justin Marsden expects Gumdale, Wakerley and Manly to outperform in the next few years.
“Gumdale continues to increase its average sales price off the back of Chandler’s high demand,” Mr Marsden said.
“Although Gumdale is not solely acreage properties like Chandler, with a current average sales price of $920,000, and only 20 minutes from Brisbane CBD, it will be the next Brisbane suburb to be included in the $1 million club.”
Mr Marsden said Manly also continued to grow and was becoming highly sough-after from inner-city Brisbane and interstate buyers looking for “the quieter life”.
He predicts the suburb will enter the million dollar club by 2021 or 2022.
BRISBANE’S NEXT MILLION DOLLAR SUBURBS
Suburb – Median house price – Predicted median price by 2022
Rochedale – $998,000 – 1,197,600
Ashgrove – $980,000 – $1,176,000
Kangaroo Point – $967,000 – $1,160,400
Dutton Park – $964,250 – $1,157,100
Bardon – $946,250 – $1,135,500
Highgate Hill – $940,000 – $1,128,000
Gumdale – $938,000 – $1,125,600
Camp Hill – $925,000 – $1,110,000
Grange – $920,000 – $1,104,000
Graceville – $907,500 – $1,089,000
Norman Park – $902,500 – $1,083,000
Fig Tree Pocket – $901,750 – $1,082,100
Kenmore Hills – $899,500 – $1,079,400
Spring Hill – $897,500 – $1,077,000
Sherwood – $895,000 – $1,074,000
Taringa – $891,500 – $1,069,800
Toowong – $890,500 – $1,068,600
Indooroopilly – $888,000 – $1,065,600
Mount Ommaney – $880,363 – $1,056,435
Lutwyche – $870,000 – $1,044,000
Yeronga – $867,500 – $1,041,000
Alderley – $860,000 – $1,032,000
East Brisbane – $860,000 – $1,032,000
Yeerongpilly – $860,000 – $1,032,000
Carindale – $856,570 – $1,027,884
Gordon Park – $856,000 – $1,027,200
Wooloowin – $852,500 – $1,023,000
Coorparoo – $850,000 – $1,020,000
Newmarket – $850,000 – $1,020,000
Red Hill – $848,500 – $1,018,200
Petrie Terrace – $847,000 – $1,016,400
Anstead – $844,000 – $1,012,800
Windsor – $840,000 – $1,008,000